by Shelley Pineo-Jensen, Ph.D. 2/10/16
|Sanders gives victory speech in New Hampshire|
The national media used the terms “sweep,” “clobbers,” “thrashed,” “thumping,” “beating her resoundingly,” and “astonishing blow” to describe Bernie Sanders 60.2% to 38.2% victory over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. CNN claimed that he seized on the “fury of grass-roots voters to rock the elites who control American politics.”
|Voter Percentages in Democratic Race|
DIGGING DEEPER INTO THE DATA
Some other things happened in New Hampshire that are not obvious at a quick look.
First, Trump got more votes than Clinton:
|Trump got more votes than Clinton|
Second, Sanders cast a shadow over all the candidates in the race. Bernie Sanders got 29.3% of all the voters in New Hampshire, both Democratic and Republican, around 10% more of the total vote than the next in line.
|Sanders got significantly more votes than any other candidate|
One clue as to why Bernie Sanders was so successful in New Hampshire was revealed by exit polling conducted by Edison Research for The Associated Press and the television networks. 90% of Democratic voters for whom honesty was important supported Bernie Sanders. 80% of Democratic voters who wanted a candidate who “cares about people like me” voted for Sanders.
VOTERS SUPPORTED A POLITICAL REVOLUTION
For these people, Bernie Sanders’ call for a “Political Revolution” is resonating. As Sanders put it, “The government of our great country belongs to all of the people, and not just a handful of wealthy campaign contributors and their super PACs!”
As his campaign re-focuses on Nevada, South Carolina, and Super Tuesday (March 1), Sanders detoured to New York City to meet with Al Sharpton on Wednesday, the day after the New Hampshire primary. Sharpton has yet to endorse a candidate for president and Sanders is clearly interested in adding to the list of prominent black leaders who have already endorsed him.
Sanders noted in his victory speech:
I am going to New York City tonight and tomorrow, but I’m notgoing to New York City to hold a fundraiser on Wall Street. Instead, I’m goingto hold a fundraiser right here, right now, across America. My request isplease go to Berniesanders.com and contribute. Please help us raise the fundswe need, whether it’s $10 bucks, $20 bucks, or $50 bucks. Help up us raise themoney we need to take the fight to Nevada, South Carolina, and the states onSuper Tuesday.So, there it is, that’s our fundraiser. Pretty quick.
SANDERS ORGANIZATION SEES QUICK GROWTH
CNN reported that his grassroots organization did see a surge in donations; $2.6 million was raised in the hours after his victory speech in New Hampshire, until his website was overwhelmed with traffic around midnight and processing donations slowed to a crawl. Sanders has attracted more than 1.3 million contributors — nearly twice as many as Clinton has. Since most of the donations are small, donors can contribute more; the maximum allowed is $2700, but it hard to imagine that the majority of Sanders donors have access to that kind of discretionary cash. Clinton raised 58% of her money in 2015 from donors who gave the maximum and cannot contribute again, except of course secretly through super PACS.
|Sanders campaign relies on individual donors|
Sanders has added 1000 volunteers to his organization since Iowa. Over 17,000 new people have “liked” his Facebook page (facebook.com/senatorsanders/) in the last 24 hours (data captured around noon on 2/10/16), which the highest 24 hour total since I started collecting data in mid-November (except for the Fallon bump, which was 60,000 in 48 hours).
CLINTON CAMP IN DISARRAY
The Clinton camp is considering a major change in strategy to deal with what CNN described as a “painful blow.” The media giant noted “signs of growing internal rancor in her campaign and complaints by Democrats that her message as a progressive who gets results is no match for Sanders' heady demands for a political revolution, which has inspired younger Democratic voters.” Politico reported that Hillary and Bill Clinton have become “increasingly caustic in their criticism of aides . . . so dissatisfied with their campaign’s messaging and digital operations they are considering staffing and strategy changes.”
|Political cartoon mocking Clinton's email problems|
When voters care about honesty, Bernie Sanders is their choice. No amount of reshuffling her staff will improve the perception that Hillary Clinton is not honest. In an August Quinnipiac survey of 1563 voters, the word most volunteered by respondents regarding Clinton was “liar” and other top words were “dishonest,” “untrustworthy,” and “criminal.” Her failure to come clean about her email fiasco, in which she acknowledges that she erased 30,000 emails before turning the rest over to the Justice Department, creates the vivid impression that she is hiding something, perhaps more than just incompetent management of state secrets. The wiggling statement that the documents were not classified when they were communicated does not imbue confidence in her truthfulness.
Oddly, even Republicans recognize that Bernie Sanders is honest. One well known Republican commentator said he respected Sanders, comparing him favorably to Republican candidate Ted Cruz, about whom he said: “his word is his bond: He says what he means and he means what he says.”
When voters value a candidate who “cares about people like me,” Sanders is their overwhelming choice. Here again, Clinton is in deep trouble. Her reactionary responses, changing her positions to match views popularized by Bernie Sanders, do nothing to improve a perception that she doesn’t have core values and is guided by focus groups. Her indirect responses to direct questions leave some viewers wishing she would just say what she means and mean what she says.
Bernie Sanders, in contrast, tells it like it is and lets the chips fall where they may. You may not agree with him, but at least you know what he thinks. And what he thinks is clear: it’s time for a political revolution.
|Sanders shoots hoops awaiting Victory in New Hampshire|
ABC NEWS Poll: 'Liar' Most Frequently Associated Word With Hillary Clinton 8/27/15
CNN Politics Outsiders sweep to victory in New Hampshire (2/10/16)
Politico Clinton weighs staff shake-up after New Hampshire (2/8/16)
Politico Sanders clobbers Clinton in New Hampshire 2/9/16)
The Washington Post Bernie Sanders’s fundraising prowess boosts his post-New Hampshire efforts 2/10/16
Time Bernie Sanders Becomes Object of Republican Fascination in Iowa (1/25/16)