Dipto Islam, Feb 11, 2016
According to RCP, recent average results of polls conducted
between January 17-23 shows that Clinton is 30% point ahead of Sanders in South
Carolina (Clinton 62% and Sanders 32.5%). In such a situation, Clinton’s
popularity seems insurmountable. But, non-profit organisation NPR has detected
a hitch. NPR conducted a research among SC young black voters and found that young,
black college-aged voters are turning lukewarm on Clinton.
Via NPR:
At a gathering of University
of South Carolina College Democrats this week, a group watching the results
come in from New Hampshire was split fairly evenly between Sanders and Clinton
supporters. Only one USC student didn't raise his hand for either candidate —
Michael Cauthen, a junior studying political science. He told NPR he was
undecided.
But upon further
reflection, that changed. "I feel like both of the candidates have pretty
similar past platforms," Cauthen said. "I think when Bernie Sanders
entered the race, he definitely pulled Hillary to the left ... which I think is
a good thing." And then, he said, "ultimately I'm leaning Hillary. I
do like Bernie and I think his policies are interesting. I don't know whether
they're pragmatic." Cauthen, who is black, told NPR he'd vote for Clinton
in the South Carolina primary and in the general election, should she be her
party's nominee.
But, Cauthen was slow,
if not afraid, to admit it. He said he still has reservations about some of
Clinton's past positions, like her shift on a 2002 bankruptcy bill.
Earlier this week at
Claflin University, a historically black college in Orangeburg, student Jessica
Tolbert wavered in her support of Clinton as well, just before attending a
pro-Clinton rally on campus. "I'm probably gonna vote for Hillary,"
Tolbert said at first. But the more she talked, the more she wavered.
"Consistency is key for me," Tolbert said. "And I think on
certain things, I hear her say one thing and then I hear her say something
else." Eventually, when asked how she'd vote if the election were held
right then, she said, "If I could vote today, maybe it would go to
Bernie."
Tolbert, whose top
issue this election is health care, said that Sanders just feels more
consistent, though she couldn't exactly put her finger on why. It could be in
part because he's newer to her, she said. "I don't know. ... Maybe he's a
fresh face. We've seen Hillary."
And that's the thing —
young black voters in South Carolina who spoke with NPR say when they look into
Clinton's record, they don't like all they've seen.
At another Clinton
rally featuring campaign surrogate Angela Bassett, this time at South Carolina
State University, student Taylor Honore had some tough questions on Clinton's
record. "I did my background research on what Hillary has really done for
the black community," Honore told NPR, "and it kind of concerned
me."
After students got
through initial questions for Bassett (star of films like Waiting to
Exhale and the Tina Turner biopic What's Love Got to Do with
It) about acting and what it's like to star in American Horror
Story alongside Lady Gaga, the actress took a tough question from Honore:
"What makes her [Clinton] good for black people now?"
Honore pressed Bassett
on Bill Clinton's so-called "crime bill," the 1994 Violent Crime Control Act, which experts claim greatly increased the number
of blacks in prisons throughout the country. (BernieSanders voted for that bill, too.)
Just after that,
another student asked about Bill Clinton's 1996 welfare reform measures and the
harm they caused to black families, asking Bassett, "As a black woman with
two sons, why do you advocate on Ms. Clinton's behalf?"
Bassett said Clinton
does care about black families, pointing to her work with the Children's
Defense Fund and the Children's Health Insurance Program. The actress also said
Clinton is ready to have conversations about incarceration and the role of the
government pertaining to black families.
But there was a theme
to the students' questions: A lot of these young black students' ambivalence
toward Hillary Clinton was a reaction not just to her, but also to her
husband's policies.
And the questions
seemed to contradict the belief in Clinton's campaign that black and Latino
voters will help her win the Democratic nomination. Critics are saying Clinton
is unfairly counting on those votes to serve as a firewall of sorts — after
seeing a plan that was spelled out in a memo from campaign manager Robby Mook earlier this week.
Clinton's campaign
seems to be aware of increasing criticism from some young black voters. On
Wednesday, her staff organized a conference call featuring black state legislators and NAACP members, to "Discuss
Clinton's and Sanders' Records on Behalf of the African American
Community." In the call, those surrogates said Sanders has been absent on
issues affecting black America.
With all the
scrambling for black votes ahead of South Carolina's primary, it's important to
keep in mind that young black voters in South Carolina
aren't all black voters in South Carolina. Jaime Harrison, chairman
of the state's Democratic Party, says they may not even be the majority.
"In 2008, 56 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary was African-Americans
— more than half," he said. Of that demographic, Harrison says, black
women were the most powerful, but not young black women. "It's sort of our
mothers' ages ... I would say ... 35 to 60 — that age is the sweet spot. So,
Bernie Sanders has to figure out how do you communicate and talk to those
folks."
And right now,
Harrison says, with those older black voters — men and women — they're still
leaning toward Clinton. The mood on college campuses, he said, "is very
different from what I see in the churches and the barbershops with older
African-Americans."
It is not yet clear
whether Sanders can change those older black voters' minds. But one candidate,
eight years ago, did just that. "What he [Sanders] could do ... and this
is something that Barack Obama was very effective in doing, was mobilizing his
young people to convince their parents — and to convince their grandparents —
to support him."
And that may be the
big question in South Carolina's Democratic primary later this month, and
perhaps throughout the rest of the country as well: How well can 2016 Bernie
Sanders channel 2008 Barack Obama?
Hillary's SC Lead Cut in Half by Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders Rally in Charleston, South Carolina
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