Saturday, February 13, 2016

Nevada Poll is a “Tie” & Confirms “Nationwide Tie” Indicated by Quinnipiac Poll

 Dipto Islam, Feb 12, 2016

Latest Nevada Poll conducted by TargetPoint between Feb2-10 shows a “tie” with both Clinton and Sanders pulling 45% of the votes. Earlier in December, poll conducted by Gravis showed Clinton leading by 23% point (Clinton 50% vs. Sanders 27%). But, that was long ago. Latest polls are better representative of current situation and therefore, December poll result does not count. For the same time factor, average of February and December poll results is not representative of the current facts and does not count. Taking these points into consideration, the current Nevada ground reality is Clinton’s lead has ultimately evaporated and there is a “tie” because Sanders has made his case which has rung true into the minds of Nevada voters, i.e. the Nevadians are “feeling the bern”.

From left, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Harry Reid and Bernie Sanders appear during a Nevada state party caucus dinner on Jan. 6, 2016. | AP Photo

This tie in Nevada will neutralize the effect of a possible Clinton win in South Carolina and will bring the situation in favour of Sanders in that it will inspire Sanders camp to run campaign more enthusiastically and aggressively. This newly found enthusiasm might give Sanders campaign overwhelming momentum.

Nevada tie also confirms a “nationwide tie” predicted by Quinnipiac Poll which was conducted between Feb 2- Feb 4. It is notable that both the TargetPoint Nevada poll and Quinnipiac nationwide poll were carried out relatively in the same period, i.e. between Feb 2- Feb 10, and so are highly likely to have a correlation in that the first confirms the later.

From February 2 - 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,125 registered voters of which 484 were Democrats and 507 were Republicans. The poll result released on 5 February 2016 shows that Dem race is tied, but Sanders runs better against GOP; U.S. Republicans want Trump, but Rubio is best in November. 

The Quinnipiac poll also predicted that if former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg runs, he hurts Sanders more than he hurts any of the top Republican contenders. Michael Bloomberg has recently announced that he is seriously considering White House bid.

Given the neck-and-neck competitive mood of the race, if Sanders camp could secure enough minority votes so as to neutralize the effect of Clinton’s upper hand in the minority vote bank, the Democratic nomination can be achieved with ease. Or else, an uncertainty will always loom which could overturn all other calculations.

Read related stories: 

Watch: First Democratic Presidential Debate 2016, Nevada, by CNN 10-13-2015 

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