Showing posts with label Voter Turnout. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Voter Turnout. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Bernie’s Michigan Primary Win: Spotlight on Media Lies, Reality, and Strategy

Dipto Islam, March 9, 2016 


Michigan says it wants a revolution by voting Bernie the winner. Bernie Sanders won Michigan Democratic primary in a tight race proving all the poll predictions wrong. High voter turnout confirmed his victory. His strategy of unmasking Hillary Clinton's past support for trade policies that killed US jobs proved fruitful. 



Sanders narrowly won Michigan Democratic primary bagging 65 delegates, while Hillary got 58 delegates. He defeated Clinton by less than 2% margin (49.9% vs. 48.2%) with 99% of precincts reporting. Sanders got a total vote of 590, 386, while Clinton got 570,949. Michigan Democratic primary was a delegate jackpot of 147 delegates. It was the largest amount of delegates for the taking since Super Tuesday. After Michigan primary total delegate count stands at Clinton 760 and Sanders 546.

Michigan result followed the usual patterns: Sanders won younger ones, while Clinton did better among older voters. Clinton won black voters over Sanders 65-30. However, that's not nearly as strong as her performance among black voters in some Southern states. In Michigan primary, Sanders was able to cut into Clinton’s consistent edge with black voters. Exit polls suggested Sanders won three in 10 African Americans in Michigan, his best showing so far. In southern states, Clinton enjoyed as high as 90% black voters support. This indicates that Clinton’s black voter advantage is declining.  

“I just want to thank the people of Michigan who repudiated the polls, who repudiated the pundits,” Sanders said in an impromptu 11 PM news conference. “The people’s revolution, the political revolution we’re talking about is strong in every part of the country.” He said record breaking turnout was behind the success.


Before the primary Sanders said, “if there is a large turnout, we are going to win here in Michigan.” Voter turnout was historic high compared to any other time. Voter turnout was 1,161,335 in 2016 compared to the closest of its kind 601,219 in 2008. Turnout of other years are nowhere near. ABC

The result is indeed an upset for Clinton and her trumpeters in the media who propagate that Sanders is unelectable. The result is also a proof of manipulated poll results that showed a Clinton average lead of 21%. Fox, ARG, and Monmouth polls conducted March 3- March 7, all showed a big Clinton lead. All these polls had a margin of error of 4% to 6%. The actual result shows that their margin of error was in fact more than 21%. All Democratic national latest poll results show a Clinton average lead of 11%. Michigan result hints that how erroneous, misleading, or manipulated these poll results could be.

Despite continued media blackout and misinformation feeding against Sanders by major main stream media, a Sanders’ victory in Michigan hints that public is growing impatient with media lies and they have started to defy media control over their thought process. 

“I just want to thank the people of Michigan who repudiated the polls, who repudiated the pundits,” Sanders said in an impromptu 11 PM news conference. “The people’s revolution, the political revolution we’re talking about is strong in every part of the country.”

Sanders’ Michigan win may prove that his strategy was successful. Sanders had blasted Clinton on trade in Michigan. He had targeted Clinton's past support for trade policies like NAFTA and the Obama administration's Trans-Pacific Partnership. He pointed out to the voters that such trade pacts killed or would kill the kinds of manufacturing jobs that many Michiganders have.


 “She was very, very wrong, and millions of families around this country have been suffering as a result of those disastrous trade agreements,” he said in a gathering of Michigan workers who talked about how they lost their jobs to expanded trade. Sanders accused Clinton of siding with big business and Wall Street.  

More than half of Democratic and Republican voters in Michigan, along with Republicans in Mississippi, said trade takes away jobs, according to surveys of voters after they cast ballots. In exit polls, the majority of Michigan Democratic voters (56 percent) said they think trade takes away U.S. jobs, and Sanders was strong among those voters, with 56 percent of their vote.

Sanders’ Michigan win offers evidence that his message of fighting for blue-collar workers and opposing free-trade deals can resonate—and with big-delegate Rust Belt state Ohio coming up on the primary calendar on March 15, he will soon have the opportunity to employ that message again. Expect to see the Sanders camp amplify the trade message. 

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Turnout Challenge for Sanders: Young Voters Turn Out At Far Lower Rates

Dipto Islam, Feb 24, 2016


Bernie Sanders’ firewall is his mountain-some popularity among young voters. Recent Snapchat poll conducted February 11-14 found that majority young voters consider Bernie Sanders as the most respectable presidential candidate. This popularity among young voters also comes with a turnout challenge. This is a huge challenge for Mr. Sanders: He is competitive because he leads by stupendous margins among younger voters.  

Usually, young voters tend to turn out at far lower rates than older voters (see graph below). In the 2012 general election, just 45 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds turned out, compared with 72 percent of those over age 65, according to census data. In lower-turnout elections, these figures are even more lopsided. Not even in the 2008 primary season was Mr. Obama able to get the young to vote at near the same rate as older voters. Moreover, it remains uncertain how many of the young voters are actually registered to vote and how many of them would actually show up to vote. 



In the Georgia and North Carolina primaries, where official data on turnout by age is available from 2008, registered black voters who were 18 to 29 were about half as likely to turn out as registered black voters age 65 and older. Similarly, young registered Democrats in North Carolina were only half as likely to vote as older registered Democrats. According to Democratic Party officials, 80,000 voters turned out for the caucus in Nevada last week, compared with nearly 118,000 in 2008.

In 2008, Mr. Obama succeeded in mobilizing voters, and his supporters were probably so enthusiastic that he might have earned a strong turnout even without an effective ground operation. Luckily for Mr. Sanders, his young supporters are super-charged with enthusiasm and ready to take on any challenge. Success will be within hands reach if efforts of these super-charged supporters are coupled with an effective ground operation.




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Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Nomination Race: Sanders Needs High Voter Turnout || Low Turnout Is Advantageous to Clinton

Dipto Islam, Feb 23, 2016



Bernie Sanders has been stressing the need for high voter turnout all along for his victory in the Democratic primaries. On the Meet the Press after Nevada loss, Sanders identified low voter turnout as the major reason for the defeat in Nevada. He said:
...we will do well when young people, when working-class people come out. We do not do well when the voter turnout is not large. We did not do as good a job as I had wanted to bring out a large turnout.




According to Sanders, high voter turnout is the key to victory in the primaries. But, statistics say that voter turnout usually declines after Iowa and New Hampshire. If voter turnout follows the usual declining trend as seen in the earlier Democratic primaries, Sanders path to nomination may become tougher.

Democratic nomination race in 2008 was a very intensely contested one similar to 2016. In 2008, New Hampshire had the highest primary turnout rate of 54%. The turnout rate averaged 30% in the following primaries, with only a few states rising above 40%. The Iowa caucus had the highest turnout rate of 16%, and the following caucuses averaged 5%. Moreover, in 2016, voter turnout in Iowa (15.7%), New Hampshire (51.7%) and Nevada is lower than the 2008 level, which is also a matter of concern for Bernie Sanders. 

If high voter turnout is crucial for Sanders’ victory, he must tackle this monumental challenge by transforming politics in a way that has not been done before in America. Low turnout will add to the advantage of Clinton. Hopefully, with highly motivated supporters, fans, and volunteers the hurdles for Sanders do not seem to be insurmountable.   




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