Bernie Sanders’ firewall is his mountain-some popularity
among young voters. Recent Snapchat poll conducted February 11-14 found that majority young voters
consider Bernie Sanders as the most respectable presidential candidate. This
popularity among young voters also comes with a turnout challenge. This is a
huge challenge for Mr. Sanders: He is competitive because he leads by
stupendous margins among younger voters.
Usually, young voters tend to turn out at far lower rates
than older voters (see graph below). In the 2012 general election, just 45
percent of 18-to-29-year-olds turned out, compared with 72 percent of those
over age 65, according to census data. In
lower-turnout elections, these figures are even more lopsided. Not even in the
2008 primary season was Mr. Obama able to get the young to vote at near the
same rate as older voters. Moreover, it remains uncertain how many of the young voters are actually registered to vote and how many of them would actually show up to vote.
In the Georgia and North Carolina primaries, where official
data on turnout by age is available from
2008, registered black voters who were 18 to 29 were about half as likely to
turn out as registered black voters age 65 and older. Similarly, young
registered Democrats in North Carolina were only half as likely to vote as
older registered Democrats. According to Democratic Party officials, 80,000 voters
turned out for the caucus in Nevada last week, compared with nearly 118,000 in
2008.
In 2008, Mr. Obama succeeded in mobilizing voters, and his
supporters were probably so enthusiastic that he might have earned a strong
turnout even without an effective ground operation. Luckily for Mr. Sanders,
his young supporters are super-charged with enthusiasm and ready to take on any
challenge. Success will be within hands reach if efforts of these super-charged
supporters are coupled with an effective ground operation.
Bernie Sanders has been stressing the need for high voter turnout all along for his victory in the Democratic primaries. On the Meet the Press after Nevada loss, Sanders identified low voter turnout as the major reason for the defeat in Nevada. He said:
...we will do well when young people, when working-class people come out. We do not do well when the voter turnout is not large. We did not do as good a job as I had wanted to bring out a large turnout.
According to Sanders, high voter turnout is the key to victory in the primaries. But, statistics say that voter turnout usually declines after Iowa and New Hampshire. If voter turnout follows the usual declining trend as seen in the earlier Democratic primaries, Sanders path to nomination may become tougher.
Democratic nomination race in 2008 was a very intensely contested one similar to 2016. In 2008, New Hampshire had the highest primary turnout rate of 54%. The turnout rate averaged 30% in the following primaries, with only a few states rising above 40%. The Iowa caucus had the highest turnout rate of 16%, and the following caucuses averaged 5%. Moreover, in 2016, voter turnout in Iowa (15.7%), New Hampshire (51.7%) and Nevada is lower than the 2008 level, which is also a matter of concern for Bernie Sanders.
If high voter turnout is crucial for Sanders’ victory, he must tackle this monumental challenge by transforming politics in a way that has not been done before in America. Low turnout will add to the advantage of Clinton. Hopefully, with highly motivated supporters, fans, and volunteers the hurdles for Sanders do not seem to be insurmountable.
A new WV poll shows Bernie Sanders leading Hillary
Clinton by nearly 2-to-1 in West Virginia. Sanders has 57% support, while
Clinton has 29% percent, according to the MetroNews West Virginia poll. The poll was conducted Feb. 11-16 and surveyed 411
registered likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9
percent.
Sanders’s strength is among 18- to 34-year-olds, but he has
majority support among all age groups except seniors. Among voters 65 and older
in the state, Sanders leads Clinton 43 percent to 36 percent.
In his home ground Vermont, Sanders leading Clinton by 3-to-1
according to latest polls by PPP
and Castleton University. PPP poll shows Sanders leading Clinton by 76%, while Castleton
University poll shows a 74% lead. Sanders enjoys lead in Vermont over Clinton
in all categories. The polls were conducted Feb. 11-16.
In addition, there are lots of within the margin-of-error ties and other great
signs of progress in Arkansas, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Michigan,
Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma,
Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and
Wyoming, with more and more states to be added to the battleground list by the
day!
A new era in American politics began in 2008 with the election of the first person of color to the White House. Some in America are ready to vote for the first female president ever in 2016. Does Hillary Clinton have the political dash to make it so? Many have pre-ordained Hillary Clinton as the winner we here in the House of Public Discourse say " Hold Up Wait A Minute."
Hillary Clinton has been a master of the 21st-century media she is the darling of mainstream media however that can be a double edge sword. Huge new and powerful voting blocks, and scores of American citizens have had it up to their yin-yangs with mainstream media. While many older voters still struggle with the concept of social media younger voters not only except modern day politicians to understand the digital age but also they expect politicians to embrace its power.
The news of today does not revolve around mainstream media it comes from We The People on various social media platforms like Facebook. Nowadays, it's not cool for political candidates to detach themselves and simply rely on mainstream media to deliver their message. No matter how many corporate polls say Hillary Clinton is winning social media polls say different. At this point, Hillary Clinton has failed miserably to convey any coherent message that a Hillary Clinton presidency would help young people or the everyday hard working low and middle-class American. This failure to connect with this crucial voting block could derail Hillary Clinton ambition to be the first female president.
As a follower of politics for most of my adult life, one thing you can expect from politicians in the hip pocket of corporate donors, special interest, and now Super PACS is a rhetoric full of smoke and mirrors.
There is a game that corporate owned politicians play in today's politics. What is sad they proclaim it must be played to be successful. This game is often overlooked by voters and especially those casual observers of politics. However, the interjection of social media is helping to combat this overlook by electors, and while many Americans remain in the dark, the light is slowly beginning to shine through for more and more Americans.
Hillary Clinton comes from a wealthy family. She is the wife of former President Bill Clinton. In the current 2016 race, Hillary Clinton is trying to portray herself as a regular American, who is in touch with the poor and middle-class. There is documented proof she tries to adapt her accent for political appeal.
It's true that many voters will not pick up on this smoke and mirror political tactic by Hillary Clinton, but an ever increasing knowledgeable voting base will. Hillary Clinton image team needs a makeover because active voters are not buying for one second this run to the left I,m a populist candidate Clinton. In fact, it's an insult to one's intelligence.
The name Hillary Clinton in politics may hold more weight than what her actual accomplishments do.
Hillary Clinton was the most-traveled Secretary of State in the history of the office. It has been widely acknowledged Hillary Clinton was not responsible for any significant strategies during her time holding the position. No matter the witch hunt that became known as the Benghazi Hearings were Hillary Clinton did say she was responsible for some security lapses. [See Article] No matter how hard the Hillary Clinton handlers try to spin it, Hillary Clinton has a ton of political baggage hanging over her head. There are millions of Americans who do not see any real accomplishments from the former first lady and see this negatively and equate this negativity as inactivity.
No matter Hillary Clinton achievements or lack thereof her high name recognition does not guarantee her a win in November 2016. In fairness, to Hillary Clinton, she has made a lot of enemies in her day that has made her a target for nasty news media sound bites. However, there is an argument to be made that her evolving political image is disingenuous, deceitful, and manipulative to the lower and middle-class voter. Facts show by her record and who her donors are that Hillary Clinton is not a populist candidate she is perceived by many Democratic voters as a corporate tool and that her promises on the campaign trial are just that promises.
There is a current change going on in the Democratic Party. There is a persistent move from the center right to the center left. There is a corporatist wing and a populist wing. Hillary Clinton has a voting record that does not sit well with the growing progressive wing in the party. Many experts say, and Barack Obama pounded it home in 2008 that Hillary Clinton voted for the war in Iraq.
Corporate Democrats and other rank and file party members are giving Hillary Clinton a pass on this huge blunder that she has admitted. With that said, there are others in the Democratic Party who have not given Hillary Clinton that pass and have made it known nationwide they will not vote for Hillary Clinton.
This issue poses a significant problem for Hillary Clinton, who already is battling a poll that suggest 60% of Americans find her untrustworthy and dishonest.[See Source] This factoid coupled by young voters who are not buying into the Hillary Clinton public relations efforts and the growing number of Democrats who don't adhere to her beliefs or excuse her voting record Hillary Clinton may be in for some surprises in her second quest for the highest office in the world.
It's all about big businesses for Hillary Clinton. Who can refute that once you get a look at who is feeding money into her campaign? Unlike her primary opponent Bernie Sanders who refuses to take influence peddling money, Hillary Clinton has accepted it with open arms.
Hillary Clinton may not be a new name in the political public sphere, but her bogus attempt at being a populist candidate to uninformed voters is not working. Why? Because when the rubber hits the road it's the issues that matter to her campaign donors that shine forth like a beacon of light from a seashore lighthouse.
A growing number of Americans both young and old are sick and tired of the wealthiest Americans influencing our democracy. Like it or not Hillary Clinton has over the years gained the reputation as a Washington-Wall Street insider who does the bidding for her corporate buddies. So, when she tries to peddle back to a populist stance, those untrustworthy stats reach up and take a bite.
Americans Proved In 2008 They Were Done With The Bushes And Clinton's.
Americans in 2008 and the early polling of Jeb Bush show that We The People are suffering from dynasty fatigue. America is not a Monarchy. Before the 2008 election, there was either a Bush or Clinton in the White House. This period span was 25 years. This dynasty fatigue factor gets no mention in mainstream media, but this factor is a very real issue with millions of Americans. Americans love an underdog, and Hillary Clinton has been the pre-ordained choice of the Democratic Party hierarchy that many experts have cited as losing touch with the changing progressive tide of the party.
Bernie Sanders has captured the heart of not only Progressive Democrats, Millennial Voters, Independents, but Republican voters as well. The surge and growing popularity of Bernie Sanders is a genuine grassroots populist movement. Hillary Clinton and her corporate Democrat buddies can kiss the nomination on a silver platter idea goodbye. Bernie Sanders has done an outstanding job of messaging, and his campaign of embracing the power of social media is paying huge dividends for the growth of his name recognition and his consistent progressive record as a 25-year public servant. Sanders natural candor is ringing true with a board and diverse group of Americans. It is not only arrogant to claim Hillary Clinton has the nomination in the bag it's foolish. With Bernie Sanders, there is no question of his authenticity or his trustworthiness factors the Hillary Clinton campaign cannot rely on.
Johnny Hill is a freelance writer who has extensive experience in writing for sales, marketing and advertising. He has a background in radio broadcasting which is showcased in the music mixes he creates for his Facebook page, "One Nation Under the Groove." Johnny has been an avid and life long student of politics . He is the founder of the House of Public Discourse Political Organization, which he created as a platform for his progressive liberal ideology. You can follow Johnny on Twitter, @hillj60.
Bernie remains consistent in his approach to addressing issues, while Hillary evolves.
The Iraq War: Sanders was on the right side of history,
while Clinton supported it.
Clinton has neoconservative foreign policy that advocates for
perpetual war.
The Keystone XL Pipeline: Bernie Sanders has always been
against it, while Clinton supported it.
The TPP: Sanders has always been against it, while Clinton
supported it 45 times.
Big money interest groups cannot prevent Bernie from introducing
much needed reforms, while Hillary would always bend before them.
Clinton is an establishment politician, while Sanders is a lifelong progressive.
7 Reasons Explained:
1. Bernie remains consistent in addressing issues, while
Hillary evolves.
Bernie Sanders has remained consistent with his
approach to different issues. What he said back then in the
past, he is saying them even today. Hillary Clinton always evolves. Today
when presidential race is extremely competitive, she is quick to evolve usually
following Bernie's lead on issues. How can a person who continually evolves
based upon reasons unknown to the average voter be a better president?
Watch: Hillary Clinton’s Evolution in Motion
2. The Iraq War: Sanders was on the right side of history,
while Clinton supported it.
Bernie Sanders voted against the Iraq War. He reached the
decision to go against Iraq war using the same intelligence reports as Bush and
Clinton. He also predicted the dire consequences of Iraq war. In
contrast, Hillary Clinton voted for Iraq and now calls her vote a "mistake."
3. Clinton has neoconservative foreign policy that advocates for
perpetual war.
America has suffered enough from a neoconservative foreign
policy and one look at icasualties.org highlights
this reality.
In contrast, Bernie says, "I'll be damned" if America leads the
fight against ISIS. He calls for others to put ground troops in the region, not
the US. He puts American soldiers and veterans first, as evident by his recent Congressional Award from the Veterans of Foreign
Wars.
Some liberals hate Bush but love Hillary.
They forget that Clinton and Bush aren't very different in terms of foreign
policy. As Jacob Heilbrunn writes in The New York Times, "It's easy to
imagine Mrs. Clinton's making room for the neocons in her administration."
Also quoted in The New York Times, conservative
historian Robert Kagan says, "If she pursues a policy which we think she
will pursue, it's something that might have been called neocon, but clearly her
supporters are not going to call it that; they are going to call it something
else."
President Obama just sent American soldiers to Syria, and
might even send more . Undoubtedly, a President Hillary Clinton would
send more American soldiers to the Middle East and its tell-tale sign can be
seen in her Libyan episode. Hillary made laughable joke, "We came, we saw, he died," and then helped
usher a devastating civil war in Libya with her decision to oust the Libyan
dictator Gaddafi. Had she been President, she would have pushed the US into the
Syrian civil war too.
4. The Keystone XL Pipeline: Bernie Sanders has always been
against it, while Clinton supported it.
The controversial Keystone XL may threaten water acquirers that irrigate much of
the U.S. We know that Bernie Sanders will adamantly resist the Keystone XL. If
elected, he will continue President Obama's vetoes of Keystone XL. Hillary Clinton
once supported Keystone. As of today, although her
decision on the issue has evolved,
she cannot be trusted
to veto Keystone legislation.
5. The TPP: Sanders has always been against it, while Clinton
supported it 45 times.
But now she says she's against it. As POLITIFACT states, "It's up to voters to decide
how they feel about her changed stance on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but we
rate Clinton's reversal as a Full Flop."
6. Big money interest groups cannot prevent Bernie from introducing
much needed reforms, while Hillary would always bend before them.
He could not be influenced by big money as he is running a
grass roots campaign. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton will always have to
bend before the demands of corporations as she is favored by
Wall Street. Four of Clinton's top five donors since 1999 are Wall
Street firms. Therefore, President Hillary would not be able to introduce
reforms.
Bernie is a genuine reformer who eagerly takes on the "billionaire class." Bernie Sanders wants to break up the banks and reinstate a Glass-Steagall Act. Clinton does not advocate either
policy objective.
Economically, Bernie is more progressive in tackling wealth
inequality. Clinton also addresses the issue, but continues raking in Wall Street money. Deep rooted Wall Street ties would not be helpful in tackling wealth inequality.
7. Clinton is an establishment politician, while Sanders is a
lifelong progressive.
Clinton represents establishment politics, while Sanders
opposes it. If you're not voting for Sanders in 2016, forget complaining about
Wall Street, perpetual wars, or money in politics. Bernie Sanders is a
"once in a lifetime candidate."
Clinton is looking forward to having a big win in South
Carolina primary to be held on 20 Feb after a razor sharp victory in Iowa
caucuses and crushing defeat in the New Hampshire primary. She is counting on
the strong black support she has in that state for a decisive victory.
According to RCP, recent average results of polls conducted
between January 17-23 shows that Clinton is 30% point ahead of Sanders in South
Carolina (Clinton 62% and Sanders 32.5%). In such a situation, Clinton’s
popularity seems insurmountable. But, non-profit organisation NPR has detected
a hitch. NPR conducted a research among SC young black voters and found that young,
black college-aged voters are turning lukewarm on Clinton.
At a gathering of University
of South Carolina College Democrats this week, a group watching the results
come in from New Hampshire was split fairly evenly between Sanders and Clinton
supporters. Only one USC student didn't raise his hand for either candidate —
Michael Cauthen, a junior studying political science. He told NPR he was
undecided.
But upon further
reflection, that changed. "I feel like both of the candidates have pretty
similar past platforms," Cauthen said. "I think when Bernie Sanders
entered the race, he definitely pulled Hillary to the left ... which I think is
a good thing." And then, he said, "ultimately I'm leaning Hillary. I
do like Bernie and I think his policies are interesting. I don't know whether
they're pragmatic." Cauthen, who is black, told NPR he'd vote for Clinton
in the South Carolina primary and in the general election, should she be her
party's nominee.
But, Cauthen was slow,
if not afraid, to admit it. He said he still has reservations about some of
Clinton's past positions, like her shift on a 2002 bankruptcy bill.
Earlier this week at
Claflin University, a historically black college in Orangeburg, student Jessica
Tolbert wavered in her support of Clinton as well, just before attending a
pro-Clinton rally on campus. "I'm probably gonna vote for Hillary,"
Tolbert said at first. But the more she talked, the more she wavered.
"Consistency is key for me," Tolbert said. "And I think on
certain things, I hear her say one thing and then I hear her say something
else." Eventually, when asked how she'd vote if the election were held
right then, she said, "If I could vote today, maybe it would go to
Bernie."
Tolbert, whose top
issue this election is health care, said that Sanders just feels more
consistent, though she couldn't exactly put her finger on why. It could be in
part because he's newer to her, she said. "I don't know. ... Maybe he's a
fresh face. We've seen Hillary."
And that's the thing —
young black voters in South Carolina who spoke with NPR say when they look into
Clinton's record, they don't like all they've seen.
At another Clinton
rally featuring campaign surrogate Angela Bassett, this time at South Carolina
State University, student Taylor Honore had some tough questions on Clinton's
record. "I did my background research on what Hillary has really done for
the black community," Honore told NPR, "and it kind of concerned
me."
After students got
through initial questions for Bassett (star of films like Waiting to
Exhale and the Tina Turner biopic What's Love Got to Do with
It) about acting and what it's like to star in American Horror
Story alongside Lady Gaga, the actress took a tough question from Honore:
"What makes her [Clinton] good for black people now?"
Just after that,
another student asked about Bill Clinton's 1996 welfare reform measures and the
harm they caused to black families, asking Bassett, "As a black woman with
two sons, why do you advocate on Ms. Clinton's behalf?"
Bassett said Clinton
does care about black families, pointing to her work with the Children's
Defense Fund and the Children's Health Insurance Program. The actress also said
Clinton is ready to have conversations about incarceration and the role of the
government pertaining to black families.
But there was a theme
to the students' questions: A lot of these young black students' ambivalence
toward Hillary Clinton was a reaction not just to her, but also to her
husband's policies.
And the questions
seemed to contradict the belief in Clinton's campaign that black and Latino
voters will help her win the Democratic nomination. Critics are saying Clinton
is unfairly counting on those votes to serve as a firewall of sorts — after
seeing a plan that was spelled out in a memo from campaign manager Robby Mook earlier this week.
Clinton's campaign
seems to be aware of increasing criticism from some young black voters. On
Wednesday, her staff organized a conference call featuring black state legislators and NAACP members, to "Discuss
Clinton's and Sanders' Records on Behalf of the African American
Community." In the call, those surrogates said Sanders has been absent on
issues affecting black America.
With all the
scrambling for black votes ahead of South Carolina's primary, it's important to
keep in mind that young black voters in South Carolina
aren't all black voters in South Carolina. Jaime Harrison, chairman
of the state's Democratic Party, says they may not even be the majority.
"In 2008, 56 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary was African-Americans
— more than half," he said. Of that demographic, Harrison says, black
women were the most powerful, but not young black women. "It's sort of our
mothers' ages ... I would say ... 35 to 60 — that age is the sweet spot. So,
Bernie Sanders has to figure out how do you communicate and talk to those
folks."
And right now,
Harrison says, with those older black voters — men and women — they're still
leaning toward Clinton. The mood on college campuses, he said, "is very
different from what I see in the churches and the barbershops with older
African-Americans."
It is not yet clear
whether Sanders can change those older black voters' minds. But one candidate,
eight years ago, did just that. "What he [Sanders] could do ... and this
is something that Barack Obama was very effective in doing, was mobilizing his
young people to convince their parents — and to convince their grandparents —
to support him."
And that may be the
big question in South Carolina's Democratic primary later this month, and
perhaps throughout the rest of the country as well: How well can 2016 Bernie
Sanders channel 2008 Barack Obama?
